The  Effect of Temperature and Rainfall on Road Traffic Crashes in The Greater Kumasi Metropolitan Area of Ghana: A Spatiotemporal Approach:

Jacob Solomon Idan; Emmanuel Kweku Nakua; Daniel  Boateng; Thomas Peprah  Agyekum; Aliyu  Mohammed; Shadrach Mintah; Eric Adjei-Boadu

Jacob Solomon Idan Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3161-9389
Emmanuel Kweku Nakua Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2949-1475
Daniel Boateng Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7568-7298
Thomas Peprah Agyekum Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5498-5958
Aliyu Mohammed Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2770-8968
Shadrach Mintah Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5448-7342
Eric Adjei-Boadu Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5918-2852

Keywords: Road Crashes, Climate, Temperature, Rainfall, climate

Abstract

Introduction: Road traffic crashes are a significant public health concern worldwide, causing numerous injuries and fatalities. While various factors contribute to these crashes, the influence of weather and climate conditions has emerged as an important area of research. This study aimed to access the influence of temperature and rainfall on road traffic crashes in the Greater Kumasi Metropolitan Area (GKMA) of Ghana using a Bayesian spatiotemporal modeling approach.
Method: Monthly road traffic crash data from 2010 to 2021, along with monthly temperature and rainfall, were analyzed. A Bayesian geo-spatiotemporal model was self-developed to quantify the effects of climate variables on road crashes while accounting for spatial and temporal dependencies.
Results: The findings revealed that a one-degree Celsius decrease in monthly average temperature was associated with a 0.049 increase in the risk of road crashes. On the other hand, one-millimeter increase in monthly average rainfall was associated with a 0.008 increase in crash risk. Significant spatial and temporal patterns were observed, with districts traversed by major highways exhibiting consistently higher relative risks of crashes.
Conclusion: This study revealed a significant relationship between monthly average rainfall and monthly road traffic crashes in the Greater Kumasi Metropolitan Area. This finding informs the need for targeted infrastructure improvements and enhancing public awareness campaigns to promote safe driving practices during rainy seasons.

Author Biographies

Jacob Solomon Idan, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology

Jacob Solomon Idan is an Epidemiologist and Biostatistician with research interests in communicable and non-communicable epidemiology, injuries, and modeling (spatial and non-spatial). His analytical approach integrates technical expertise with a strong understanding of public health contexts, aiming to bridge the gap between data science and epidemiology to generate actionable evidence for improving subnational health outcomes. Mr. Idan has co-authored several articles on public health issues. His interests include leveraging advanced geostatistical methods to inform actionable public health policies and improve subnational health outcomes.

Emmanuel Kweku Nakua, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology

Professor Emmanuel K. Nakua is a professor of Epidemiology and Biostatistics in the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics at the School of Public Health, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Ghana, a highly experienced researcher, and an academic in field investigations throughout Ghana. He has undertaken research in maternal and child health, injury prevention, implementation science, ageing and health in Ghana, and health system interventions, resulting in health policy and programmes at the national level. He has dedicated himself to improving health, especially for vulnerable populations, having attended multiple workshops to develop expertise in supervising and mentoring postgraduate trainees. He has excellent working relationships with a wide range of stakeholders, including the Ghana Health Service/Ministry of Health, and multilateral and bilateral agencies. He has partners across the African continent with whom we collaborate to build the capacity of public health and biostatistics leaders.

Daniel Boateng, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology

Dr. Daniel Boateng is a highly qualified and experienced Lecturer in Epidemiology and Biostatistics at KNUST. With a PhD in Clinical Epidemiology from Utrecht University, his research focuses on global health, particularly non-communicable diseases, maternal health, and the health of migrant and vulnerable populations. He possesses strong expertise in intervention evaluation, evidence synthesis, and mixed-methods research. Dr. Boateng is an active member of numerous international research consortia and holds collaborations with institutions across Europe, Africa, and Asia. An accomplished academic, he has over 50 publications, supervises numerous students, and teaches courses in epidemiology and scientific writing in both Ghana and the Netherlands. He also holds significant editorial roles, serving as a Guest Editor for PLOS ONE and Deputy Editor for Global Heart Journal.

Thomas Peprah Agyekum, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology

Dr Thomas Peprah Agyekum is a Lecturer at the Department of Occupational and Environmental Health and Safety, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana. He holds BSc and MSc in Environmental Science from the Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana. Thomas obtained his PhD in Public Health from the University of Ghana, Legon, Ghana. Thomas is a multidisciplinary research scientist who has used several research techniques that combine a broad span of disciplines including climate change and variability, air and water pollution, exposure assessment and risk analysis, and mosquito development. He has served as a research assistant on the Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) African Science for Weather Information and Forecasting Techniques (SWIFT) project

Aliyu Mohammed, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology

Dr. Aliyu Mohammed is currently a Lecturer with the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics (School of Public Health) at the Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology (KNUST), Ghana. He has a broad background in Public health, with expertise in Management Information System (MIS), Biostatistics, Monitoring and Evaluation of eHealth applications and Epidemiologic Surveillance. His research interest broadly focuses on infectious disease surveillance using MIS and Geographic Information System. His research particularly involves monitoring and evaluation of health technology interventions to identify and address health inequities among the vulnerable and underserved population including children, people with certain medical conditions.

Shadrach Mintah, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology

Shadrach Mintah is a data analyst and epidemiologist with a strong background in computer science and applied biostatistics. He holds a BSc in Computer Science and an MPhil in Field Epidemiology and Applied Biostatistics all from Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology. His research interests include injury research, infectious disease modeling, spatial analysis and health outcomes analysis.Shadrach is passionate about leveraging data-driven insights to inform public health policies and improve patient outcomes. He is also experienced in study design, including cross-sectional, longitudinal, and outbreak investigations. His analytical approach integrates both technical expertise and a strong understanding of public health contexts. Shadrach aims to bridge the gap between data science and epidemiology to address pressing health challenges.

Eric Adjei-Boadu, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology

Dr. Eric Adjei Boadu is a Lecturer in the Department of Population, Family and Reproductive Health at the School of Public Health, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Ghana. He is a results-oriented Quality Improvement Advisor trained by the Institute for Healthcare Improvement (USA), as well as a Demographer, Teacher, Analyst, Monitoring and Evaluation Specialist, and Project Management Professional. With over ten years of experience, he has been involved in designing, monitoring, and managing various community and donor-funded development projects in Ghana and beyond. His research interests include the relationship between population variables and development, adolescent, child, and reproductive health, and issues related to climate change, variability, and safety.

The Effect of Temperature and Rainfall on Road Traffic Crashes in The Greater Kumasi Metropolitan Area of Ghana: A Spatiotemporal Approach

Spatio-Temporal Climate-Road Crash Associations

Abstract

Author Biographies